The global animal protein sector is heading into 2026 with less momentum — and far less margin for error. According to new analysis from RaboResearch, production growth will continue to slow as cyclical market corrections collide with deeper structural shifts across regions and species.

Seafood and poultry are expected to carry what growth remains. Pork and beef, meanwhile, are forecast to contract, marking the first decline in global terrestrial animal protein output in six years.

Growth, but uneven

Not all proteins are moving in the same direction. Faster-cycle, lower-cost proteins are gaining ground, while longer-cycle sectors face tightening supply and tougher economics.

RaboResearch points to corrections underway in North American and Brazilian cattle markets, alongside China’s ongoing efforts to rebalance its pork sector, as key contributors to the slowdown. The result is a more fragmented global protein picture — one where growth is increasingly selective rather than broad-based.

Margins get thinner

Even with feed costs expected to remain relatively stable, profitability is under pressure.

“Lower protein supplies, rising volatility and trade costs, and disease pressure will weigh on margins,” said Éva Gocsik, Global Strategist for Animal Protein at RaboResearch.

Processors continue to grapple with capacity utilization challenges, while tariffs and other protectionist measures disrupt established trade flows. Together, these forces threaten to raise costs, soften demand and squeeze margins across the value chain.

“In both mature and developing markets, a focus on increasing efficiency and productivity will be critical at the farm and processor level,” Gocsik said.

Price-sensitive consumers

A cooling global economy is reshaping demand. With global GDP growth projected to slow, consumers are becoming more price-conscious — and more willing to trade down or switch between proteins.

Price pressure within categories could accelerate substitution, while ongoing interest in protein-rich diets may help support baseline demand. At the same time, the growing use of glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) agonists adds another layer of uncertainty around future consumption patterns.

Trade bends, not breaks

Despite geopolitical tension and shifting trade policy, global animal protein trade has proven more resilient than expected.

Strategic front-loading — including increased Brazilian beef shipments into the U.S. — has helped stabilize volumes during periods of tariff volatility. Supply-demand imbalances continue to search for equilibrium, a dynamic RaboResearch expects to persist into 2026. New trade agreements may offer incremental upside, even as uncertainty remains elevated.

Disease stays disruptive

Animal health continues to be a defining constraint on global production.

Ongoing outbreaks of African swine fever and avian influenza are disrupting supply chains and compressing margins, while emerging threats such as New World screwworm and bluetongue are adding complexity to disease management.

These pressures are accelerating investment in biosecurity and monitoring, though implementation remains uneven and operationally challenging across regions.

Sustainability moves to the core

Sustainability risks tied to climate and nature are no longer peripheral concerns. Regulatory momentum is pushing environmental and social risk management to the centre of strategic planning for animal protein companies.

Technology — particularly artificial intelligence — offers tools to support efficiency, resilience and sustainability outcomes. However, RaboResearch notes that investment remains limited, and adoption has been slow in a sector traditionally cautious about change.

While not every digital solution will prove transformative, targeted integration into existing workflows could unlock meaningful progress.

“Maintaining consumer trust is paramount,” Gocsik said. “In times of heightened risk, consumers continue to prioritize animal welfare, supply availability, price, food safety and quality — driving greater transparency and traceability across the system.”

Based on RaboResearch analysis of global animal protein markets heading into 2026.